Resumen
We estimate the effect of RTAs on bilateral exports by means of a gravity model analyzing its sensitivity to different specifications and methods. RTAs generate a sizable positive effect. However, shifting to country-pair and time-varying fixed effects systematically reduces coefficients. Nevertheless, the RTA effect is consistent across methods and specifications. The RTA effect attributable to particular trade agreements displays high va-riability. While most RTAs increase trade, others present non-significant or negative results. We apply robustness checks to individual RTA estimates by presenting PPML time-invariant fixed effects and next to these, country-pair and time-varying fixed effects estimates. Thus, 38.2% of RTAs are positive and significant in both specifications. RTAs trade creation effects tend to prevail over trade diversion effects.
Título traducido de la contribución | Un análisis de sensibilidad sobre el impacto de los acuerdos comerciales regionales en los flujos bilaterales de comercio |
---|---|
Idioma original | Inglés |
Páginas (desde-hasta) | 193-219 |
Número de páginas | 27 |
Publicación | Estudios de Economia |
Volumen | 47 |
N.º | 2 |
Estado | Publicada - dic. 2020 |