Abstract
We estimate the effect of RTAs on bilateral exports by means of a gravity model analyzing its sensitivity to different specifications and methods. RTAs generate a sizable positive effect. However, shifting to country-pair and time-varying fixed effects systematically reduces coefficients. Nevertheless, the RTA effect is consistent across methods and specifications. The RTA effect attributable to particular trade agreements displays high va-riability. While most RTAs increase trade, others present non-significant or negative results. We apply robustness checks to individual RTA estimates by presenting PPML time-invariant fixed effects and next to these, country-pair and time-varying fixed effects estimates. Thus, 38.2% of RTAs are positive and significant in both specifications. RTAs trade creation effects tend to prevail over trade diversion effects.
| Translated title of the contribution | Un análisis de sensibilidad sobre el impacto de los acuerdos comerciales regionales en los flujos bilaterales de comercio |
|---|---|
| Original language | English |
| Pages (from-to) | 193-219 |
| Number of pages | 27 |
| Journal | Estudios de Economia |
| Volume | 47 |
| Issue number | 2 |
| State | Published - Dec 2020 |
Keywords
- Economic Integration
- Gravity Model
- International Trade
- Regional Trade Agreements RTA
- Trade Liberalization