Analysis of changes in water pressure at the Cane - Boyacá river watershed, based on the uncertainty of the future change in supply and demand due to both population growth, and climate change & variability

Resumen

This work evaluates the impacts of population growth, and climate change on future water supply in a catchment in Colombia. Rainfall and Temperature were projected from 2016 to 2100 using the quantile mapping method to statistical downscaling of 8 different RCMs data. Hydrologic simulations from observed (1987-2015) and future data (2016-2100) were carried out using The Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) model. Population growth was quantified by using historical information and population censuses reviewed in the literature. Anthropogenic and Ecocentric water pressure indices were used to compare those effects over three different time periods 1987-2015, 2030-2058 and 2072-2100.The results revealed a constant increase in temperature over the century while rainfall trend was strongly linked to the topography of the watershed. Those future projections lead to a significant reduction of minimum flows, for both future periods. However, population growth demand scenarios represent even more critical scenarios over the catchment compared to impacts by climate change. This study also emphasizes the need to improve the minimum information needed to develop this kind of investigations guided to understand impacts of population growth and climate change on available water supply on catchments.

Fecha de lectura	22 oct. 2019
Idioma original	Español
Institución de lectura	Pontificia Universidad Javeriana