Why has Valle del Cauca grown more than the national average? A Regional Analysis of Economic Cycles and Shocks,Por qué el Valle del Cauca ha crecido más que el promedio nacional? Un análisis regional de los ciclos y los choques económicos

Using a BVAR model and the data of the Monthly Economic Activity Indicator (IMAE), the effect of different monetary and external sector shocks on the cyclical growth of the department of Valle del Cauca is estimated, and compared with the effect of these same shocks on the national cycle. We found that the economy of the Valle del Cauca differs from the national average by presenting larger response to variations in the real exchange rate. This is precisely the factor that in a greater proportion - almost by 50% - explains the higher growth of the economy of Valle del Cauca since the end of 2013. The estimates show the null effect that the changes in the price of oil have on the departmental growth and the greater the impact on the economy of the Valley of the changes in the US GDP and the country risk. © 2018, The Authors. All rights reserved.