Understanding the effects of uncertainty in the crop planning

Crop planning problem is characterized by finding a solution to maximizing farmers returns considering constraints on availability of labor and land for harvest, making decisions about the area to cultivate. This classic approach has been developed under linear programming, but given the complexity of the agricultural context, researchers have included stochastic parameters, when the future is unknown and there is not sufficient information to meet economic risks involved decisions under uncertainty scenarios. Crop planning under uncertainty, introduces new elements such as price variability, change in yield as a result of climatic factors that influence in the production system, but also to the quality of agricultural products, date of planting and harvesting, and other general aspects which were not taken into account. We need to take an approach for understanding the dynamics of the system and how decisions are affected by uncertainty. For that reason, we use Dynamic Systems and Stochastic Programming using yield histotry and weather data showing that is important included the risk associated with loss of quality. The case study is Passiflora edulis (Passion Fruit) crop in the Department of Huila, Colombia.