TY - JOUR
T1 - Marburg virus disease outbreaks, mathematical models, and disease parameters
T2 - a systematic review
AU - Pathogen Epidemiology Review Group
AU - Cuomo-Dannenburg, Gina
AU - McCain, Kelly
AU - McCabe, Ruth
AU - Unwin, H. Juliette T.
AU - Doohan, Patrick
AU - Nash, Rebecca K.
AU - Hicks, Joseph T.
AU - Charniga, Kelly
AU - Geismar, Cyril
AU - Lambert, Ben
AU - Nikitin, Dariya
AU - Skarp, Janetta
AU - Wardle, Jack
AU - Kont, Mara
AU - Bhatia, Sangeeta
AU - Imai, Natsuko
AU - van Elsland, Sabine
AU - Cori, Anne
AU - Morgenstern, Christian
AU - Morris, Aaron
AU - Forna, Alpha
AU - Dighe, Amy
AU - Hamlet, Arran
AU - Whittaker, Charlie
AU - Jorgensen, David
AU - Knock, Ed
AU - Unwin, Ettie
AU - Thompson, Hayley
AU - Routledge, Isobel
AU - Hicks, Joseph
AU - Fraser, Keith
AU - Geidelberg, Lily
AU - Cattarino, Lorenzo
AU - Baguelin, Marc
AU - Moghaddas, Nima
AU - Nash, Rebecca
AU - Radhakrishnan, Sreejith
AU - Cucunuba Perez, Zulma
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2024 Elsevier Ltd
PY - 2024/5
Y1 - 2024/5
N2 - The 2023 Marburg virus disease outbreaks in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania highlighted the importance of better understanding this lethal pathogen. We did a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of peer-reviewed articles reporting historical outbreaks, modelling studies, and epidemiological parameters focused on Marburg virus disease. We searched PubMed and Web of Science from database inception to March 31, 2023. Two reviewers evaluated all titles and abstracts with consensus-based decision making. To ensure agreement, 13 (31%) of 42 studies were double-extracted and a custom-designed quality assessment questionnaire was used for risk of bias assessment. We present detailed information on 478 reported cases and 385 deaths from Marburg virus disease. Analysis of historical outbreaks and seroprevalence estimates suggests the possibility of undetected Marburg virus disease outbreaks, asymptomatic transmission, or cross-reactivity with other pathogens, or a combination of these. Only one study presented a mathematical model of Marburg virus transmission. We estimate an unadjusted, pooled total random effect case fatality ratio of 61·9% (95% CI 38·8–80·6; I2=93%). We identify epidemiological parameters relating to transmission and natural history, for which there are few estimates. This systematic review and the accompanying database provide a comprehensive overview of Marburg virus disease epidemiology and identify key knowledge gaps, contributing crucial information for mathematical models to support future Marburg virus disease epidemic responses.
AB - The 2023 Marburg virus disease outbreaks in Equatorial Guinea and Tanzania highlighted the importance of better understanding this lethal pathogen. We did a systematic review (PROSPERO CRD42023393345) of peer-reviewed articles reporting historical outbreaks, modelling studies, and epidemiological parameters focused on Marburg virus disease. We searched PubMed and Web of Science from database inception to March 31, 2023. Two reviewers evaluated all titles and abstracts with consensus-based decision making. To ensure agreement, 13 (31%) of 42 studies were double-extracted and a custom-designed quality assessment questionnaire was used for risk of bias assessment. We present detailed information on 478 reported cases and 385 deaths from Marburg virus disease. Analysis of historical outbreaks and seroprevalence estimates suggests the possibility of undetected Marburg virus disease outbreaks, asymptomatic transmission, or cross-reactivity with other pathogens, or a combination of these. Only one study presented a mathematical model of Marburg virus transmission. We estimate an unadjusted, pooled total random effect case fatality ratio of 61·9% (95% CI 38·8–80·6; I2=93%). We identify epidemiological parameters relating to transmission and natural history, for which there are few estimates. This systematic review and the accompanying database provide a comprehensive overview of Marburg virus disease epidemiology and identify key knowledge gaps, contributing crucial information for mathematical models to support future Marburg virus disease epidemic responses.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85183763546&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00515-7
DO - 10.1016/S1473-3099(23)00515-7
M3 - Review article
C2 - 38040006
AN - SCOPUS:85183763546
SN - 1473-3099
VL - 24
SP - e307-e317
JO - The Lancet Infectious Diseases
JF - The Lancet Infectious Diseases
IS - 5
ER -
