Exploring the Relationship Between Project Characteristics and Time–Cost Deviations for Colombian Rural Roads

Jose Quintero; Alexander Murgas; Adriana Gómez-Cabrera; Omar Sánchez

doi:10.3390/infrastructures10070178

Exploring the Relationship Between Project Characteristics and Time–Cost Deviations for Colombian Rural Roads

Título traducido de la contribución: Explorando la relación entre las características del proyecto y las desviaciones de tiempo y costo en las carreteras rurales colombianas

Jose Quintero
, Alexander Murgas
, Adriana Gómez-Cabrera
, Omar Sánchez

Departamento de Ingeniería Civil

Pontificia Universidad Javeriana

Producción: Contribución a una revista › Artículo › revisión exhaustiva

1 Cita (Scopus)

Resumen

Los programas de carreteras rurales son esenciales para mejorar la conectividad en zonas remotas, sin embargo, con frecuencia enfrentan retrasos en los cronogramas y sobrecostos. Este estudio analiza en qué medida las características específicas de los proyectos influyen en estas desviaciones en contratos de carreteras rurales en Colombia. Se extrajo un conjunto de datos con 229 proyectos de la plataforma nacional de contratación pública SECOP y se procesó utilizando el protocolo CRISP-DM. Tras la limpieza y codificación de 14 variables a nivel de proyecto, se realizaron análisis estadísticos mediante correlaciones de Spearman, pruebas de Kruskal–Wallis y comparaciones post-hoc de Wilcoxon para identificar relaciones bivariadas significativas. Posteriormente, se aplicó un modelo de Bosques Aleatorios para determinar los predictores multivariados más influyentes en las desviaciones de costo y tiempo. Paralelamente, un análisis de contenido dirigido de las adendas contractuales reclasificó 22 descriptores de desviación en diez categorías internacionalmente reconocidas de causalidad, lo que permitió una interpretación integrada tanto de las evidencias estadísticas como documentales. Los resultados indican que el valor del contrato, la región geográfica y la configuración del contratista son determinantes significativos del rendimiento en coste y tiempo. Además, la intensidad del proyecto y las discrepancias entre los valores adjudicados y ofertados emergieron como principales contribuyentes a la escalada de costos. Los cambios en el alcance y las condiciones meteorológicas adversas juntos explicaron el 76% de los desencadenantes de desviaciones documentadas, destacando la importancia de una planificación robusta y consideraciones sobre riesgos climáticos en la ejecución de infraestructura rural. Los hallazgos ofrecen información valiosa para los actores, formuladores de políticas y profesionales que buscan gestionar el riesgo de desviaciones en cronogramas y presupuestos en proyectos de infraestructura pública.

Título traducido de la contribución	Explorando la relación entre las características del proyecto y las desviaciones de tiempo y costo en las carreteras rurales colombianas
Idioma original	Inglés
Número de artículo	178
Páginas (desde-hasta)	1-32
Número de páginas	32
Publicación	Infrastructures
Volumen	10
N.º	7
DOI	https://doi.org/10.3390/infrastructures10070178
Estado	Publicada - 09 jul. 2025

ODS de las Naciones Unidas

Este resultado contribuye a los siguientes Objetivos de Desarrollo Sostenible

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10.3390/infrastructures10070178

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PROPUESTA DE BUENAS PRÁCTICAS PARA PROCESOS DE CONTRATACIÓN DE PROYECTOS CONSTRUCCIÓN DE VÍAS RURALES EN COLOMBIA A PARTIR DE DATOS PÚBLICOS
Gomez Cabrera, A. (Investigador principal), Felizzola Jimenez, H. A. (Coinvestigador), Gomez Castro, C. H. (Coinvestigador), Sanchez Rivera, O. G. (Coinvestigador), Avila Avila, J. H. (Estudiante) & Pérez Hernandez, Y. J. (Estudiante)
15/08/23 → 14/02/25
Proyecto: Investigación

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abstract = "Rural road programs are essential for enhancing connectivity in remote areas, yet they frequently encounter schedule delays and budget overruns. This study explores the extent to which specific project characteristics influence these deviations in Colombian rural road contracts. A dataset comprising 229 projects was extracted from the national SECOP open-procurement platform and processed using the CRISP-DM protocol. Following the cleaning and coding of 14 project-level variables, statistical analyses were conducted using Spearman correlations, Kruskal–Wallis tests, and post-hoc Wilcoxon comparisons to identify significant bivariate relations I confirm I confirm I confirm hips. A Random Forest model was subsequently applied to determine the most influential multivariate predictors of cost and time deviations. In parallel, a directed content analysis of contract addenda reclassified 22 recorded deviation descriptors into ten internationally recognized categories of causality, enabling an integrated interpretation of both statistical and documentary evidence. The findings indicate that contract value, geographical region, and contractor configuration are significant determinants of cost and time performance. Additionally, project intensity and discrepancies between awarded and bid values emerged as key contributors to cost escalation. Scope changes and adverse weather conditions together accounted for 76\% of all documented deviation triggers, underscoring the relevance of robust front-end planning and climate-risk considerations in rural infrastructure delivery. The findings provide information for stakeholders, policymakers, and professionals who aim to manage the risk of schedule and budget deviations in public infrastructure projects. ",

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Exploring the Relationship Between Project Characteristics and Time–Cost Deviations for Colombian Rural Roads

Resumen

ODS de las Naciones Unidas

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Huella

Proyectos

PROPUESTA DE BUENAS PRÁCTICAS PARA PROCESOS DE CONTRATACIÓN DE PROYECTOS CONSTRUCCIÓN DE VÍAS RURALES EN COLOMBIA A PARTIR DE DATOS PÚBLICOS

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