TY - JOUR
T1 - Estimating spatiotemporally varying malaria reproduction numbers in a near elimination setting
AU - Routledge, Isobel
AU - Chevéz, José Eduardo Romero
AU - Cucunubá, Zulma M.
AU - Rodriguez, Manuel Gomez
AU - Guinovart, Caterina
AU - Gustafson, Kyle B.
AU - Schneider, Kammerle
AU - Walker, Patrick G.T.
AU - Ghani, Azra C.
AU - Bhatt, Samir
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2018 The Author(s).
PY - 2018/12/1
Y1 - 2018/12/1
N2 - In 2016 the World Health Organization identified 21 countries that could eliminate malaria by 2020. Monitoring progress towards this goal requires tracking ongoing transmission. Here we develop methods that estimate individual reproduction numbers and their variation through time and space. Individual reproduction numbers, R c, describe the state of transmission at a point in time and differ from mean reproduction numbers, which are averages of the number of people infected by a typical case. We assess elimination progress in El Salvador using data for confirmed cases of malaria from 2010 to 2016. Our results demonstrate that whilst the average number of secondary malaria cases was below one (0.61, 95% CI 0.55-0.65), individual reproduction numbers often exceeded one. We estimate a decline in R c between 2010 and 2016. However we also show that if importation is maintained at the same rate, the country may not achieve malaria elimination by 2020.
AB - In 2016 the World Health Organization identified 21 countries that could eliminate malaria by 2020. Monitoring progress towards this goal requires tracking ongoing transmission. Here we develop methods that estimate individual reproduction numbers and their variation through time and space. Individual reproduction numbers, R c, describe the state of transmission at a point in time and differ from mean reproduction numbers, which are averages of the number of people infected by a typical case. We assess elimination progress in El Salvador using data for confirmed cases of malaria from 2010 to 2016. Our results demonstrate that whilst the average number of secondary malaria cases was below one (0.61, 95% CI 0.55-0.65), individual reproduction numbers often exceeded one. We estimate a decline in R c between 2010 and 2016. However we also show that if importation is maintained at the same rate, the country may not achieve malaria elimination by 2020.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85049251149&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.1038/s41467-018-04577-y
DO - 10.1038/s41467-018-04577-y
M3 - Article
C2 - 29946060
AN - SCOPUS:85049251149
SN - 2041-1723
VL - 9
JO - Nature Communications
JF - Nature Communications
IS - 1
M1 - 2476
ER -
