TY - JOUR
T1 - Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19
AU - for the WHO COVID-19 Modelling Parameters Group
AU - Biggerstaff, Matthew
AU - Cowling, Benjamin J.
AU - Cucunubá, Zulma M.
AU - Dinh, Linh
AU - Ferguson, Neil M.
AU - Gao, Huizhi
AU - Hill, Verity
AU - Imai, Natsuko
AU - Johansson, Michael A.
AU - Kada, Sarah
AU - Morgan, Oliver
AU - Pastore y Piontti, Ana
AU - Polonsky, Jonathan A.
AU - Prasad, Pragati Venkata
AU - Quandelacy, Talia M.
AU - Rambaut, Andrew
AU - Tappero, Jordan W.
AU - Vandemaele, Katelijn A.
AU - Vespignani, Alessandro
AU - Lane Warmbrod, K.
AU - Wong, Jessica Y.
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2020 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). All rights reserved.
PY - 2020/11
Y1 - 2020/11
N2 - We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8–6.9 days, serial interval 4.0–7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3–7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.
AB - We report key epidemiologic parameter estimates for coronavirus disease identified in peer-reviewed publications, preprint articles, and online reports. Range estimates for incubation period were 1.8–6.9 days, serial interval 4.0–7.5 days, and doubling time 2.3–7.4 days. The effective reproductive number varied widely, with reductions attributable to interventions. Case burden and infection fatality ratios increased with patient age. Implementation of combined interventions could reduce cases and delay epidemic peak up to 1 month. These parameters for transmission, disease severity, and intervention effectiveness are critical for guiding policy decisions. Estimates will likely change as new information becomes available.
UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85093900447&partnerID=8YFLogxK
U2 - 10.3201/eid2611.201074
DO - 10.3201/eid2611.201074
M3 - Article
C2 - 32917290
AN - SCOPUS:85093900447
SN - 1080-6040
VL - 26
SP - E1-E14
JO - Emerging Infectious Diseases
JF - Emerging Infectious Diseases
IS - 11
ER -
