Resumen
The objective of the study was to determine the probability of occurrence of wet or dry
season events, based on the phase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon
using multinomial logit regression models. The study used monthly time series of the
Pacific equatorial sea surface temperature (SST), a sea level pressure index (SOI) and
rainfall anomalies over a 2.5x2.5 degrees grid along the west coast of Central and South
America, for latitudes starting at 25N, through 45S, since 1951 to 2011. We defined an
ENSO index (NSO) as predictor and rainfall as response. Data was categorized into
terciles to construct non symmetrical three way contingency table. As results, we
generated latitudinal profiles of the predictability (association), for the West Coast of
Central and South America, using ENSO as predictor.
season events, based on the phase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon
using multinomial logit regression models. The study used monthly time series of the
Pacific equatorial sea surface temperature (SST), a sea level pressure index (SOI) and
rainfall anomalies over a 2.5x2.5 degrees grid along the west coast of Central and South
America, for latitudes starting at 25N, through 45S, since 1951 to 2011. We defined an
ENSO index (NSO) as predictor and rainfall as response. Data was categorized into
terciles to construct non symmetrical three way contingency table. As results, we
generated latitudinal profiles of the predictability (association), for the West Coast of
Central and South America, using ENSO as predictor.
| Idioma original | Inglés |
|---|---|
| Título de la publicación alojada | Proceedings of the ASA JSM 2013. Section on Statistics and the Environment. |
| Páginas | 1-15 |
| Número de páginas | 15 |
| Estado | Publicada - 01 dic. 2013 |
Palabras clave
- ENSO
- rainfall
- El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)