Demography of attalea nucifera: Sustainable management and conservation of a threatened species of colombia

Attalea nucifera is an acaulescent palm native of Colombia that is in risk of extinction. Between 2016-2017 we evaluated the structure and density of populations in six localities of the Magdalena river valley, and studied the population dynamic in the locality of Guaduas, Cundinamarca (VC). Although the population structure differs among locations (X² = 1819; gl = 25; P < 0.05), populations tend to group according to the degree of habitat perturbation. In four localities an inverted J population structure was observed. A matrix population model showed a finite growth rate (λ) of 0.979 (CI95 % = 0.962– 0.997). The demographic processes of the permanence of seedlings, sub-adults and young adults show more elasticity. A transient dynamic simulation projected to 30 years shows that under the scenarios of paddock and cattle lopping the population size decrease drastically. The extinction threshold calculated for the population in the locality VC is of 145 years, but paddock and cattle lopping activities can reduce it to less than 40 years. Although Attalea nucifera persists in very disturbing locations in the Middle Magdalena Basin, the results of population dynamics in the locality VC suggest that it could be less tolerant of environmental disturbances. Thus, it is necessary to increase our knowledge of its population dynamics, as well as seed germination and seedling establishment in different disturbance conditions.