Indicador de actividad economica para el departamento del valle del cauca. etapa 2 del proyecto

In the first part of this project, a Coincident Index for the Valle del Cauca was computed. The main objective of the index is to monitor monthly economic conditions in the region. Gross Domestic Product, GDP, is often used to know the economic conditions of a country or region, but at departmental scale its publication has only an annual frequency and has a lag of 14 months. Therefore, it is not possible to have a real-time assessment of the current economic situation of the region. Jointly with researchers of the Central Bank in Cali (Banco de la Republica), professors of the Department of Economics are just finishing the first stage of the project. In the second stage of this project, we propose to improve the Coincident Index for Valle del Cauca by including new variables, taking into account the results of the socialization process in the second half of 2015. additionally, we plan to develop new regional analysis regarding the effect of different external shocks on the monthly economic activity of the region (measured by the Coincident Index) such as variation of interests rates, exchange rate, and commodity