Variaciones hipotéticas en la incidencia y la fracción atribuible poblacional de cánceres hepático, colorrectal y de mama, como efectos de la reducción teórica del índice de masa corporal en Colombia, 2016 - 2050

Objective: To estimate the effect of a theoretical decrease impact of the body mass index on the incidence and the population attributable fraction of liver, colorectal and breast cancers in Colombian, 2016-2050.. Methodology: A macro-simulation study was performed under three scenarios of future distributions of the body mass index: the first or of “Reference” (without intervening on the risk factor) and two interventions scenarios: the second consisting of a gradual reduction, accumulated over the first ten years, of 10 % of the difference between the expected and ideal mean values of the body mass index and sustaining these until 2050; and the third corresponding to achieve “Complete population with ideal Body Mass Index” as of 2017. Results: It was estimated that the proportions of cancers that could be avoided under the third scenario, would range between 8,0 % (colorectal cancer) and 16,7 % (liver cancer) among women and between 10,4 % (colorectal cancer) and 12,2 % (liver cancer) among men. The avoidable number of cases projected under the second scenario would correspond to approximately 4009 breast cancers (in women), 2086 colorectal cancers and 728 liver cancers, and under the third scenario to 48 410 breast cancers, 25 089 colorectal cancers and 8648 liver cancers. Conclusion: Interventions to reduce excess weight in the Colombian population, would especially contribute to avoid liver cancer in both sexes and the new cases of breast cancer (in women).