The colombian conflict: Uribe’s first 17 months

Analysis of our new, 16-year dataset on the Colombian civil war finds under Uribe: guerrilla and paramilitary attacks dropping sharply to long-run averages since 1988, lower for AprilDecember, 2003; government-guerrilla clashes at all-time highs, exceeding guerrilla attacks; civilian killings dropping sharply and continuously to all-time lows, mainly from decreased paramilitary attacks; combatant killings rising sharply to all-time highs; guerrilla tactics shifting toward indiscriminate attacking, forcing civilian injuries to long-run highs; government-toguerrilla casualty ratios in clashes falling; governmentparamilitary clashes increasing but still uncommon; paramilitary performance in clashes poor and worsening; guerrillaparamilitary clashes dropping sharply; the ELN seriously weakened, mounting few attacks.