Terms of trade and output fluctuations in Colombia

This paper explores the impact of the terms of trade on output fluctuations in Colombia, a developing country where as much as 62% of export earnings come from just four commodities: oil (42%), coal (14%), coffee (5%), and nickel (1%). This research was prompted by: the particular role of short-run fluctuations in developing economies, the fact that the Colombian terms of trade are procyclical, and the discussion on economic policies towards sterilization of the effects of commodity prices. Following time series analysis for the period 1994-2011, robust evidence was found indicating that around one third of Colombia’s quarterly growth is attributable to changes in the terms of trade.