Potential persistence of high-mountain lizards

Climate change will impact environments globally. These changes, however, can affect species or regions differently. The upward limitation of high-mountain species suggests these are especially prone to the effects of climate change. We assess the impact of future climate scenarios on high-mountain species' suitable climatic niches. We gathered 1351 occurrence records of high-mountain (>2000 m asl) squamates and assessed species distribution models for those species occupying more than 10 unique grid-cells. Afterwards, for each species we ensemble climatic-niche suitability models for historic (1981–2010) and future climate scenarios (2011–2040, 2041–2070, 2071–2100) for two representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6 and 8.5). We identified 252 high-elevation squamate species that occur in Africa, Asia, North America and South America. When we examined species distribution models for the 17 lizard species occupying more than 10 unique grid-cells, we found a consistent negative effect of future climate change on suitable climatic-niche models: we inferred species' climatic-niche losses for 16 species and species' climatic-niche gains for 1 species. Regardless of future scenarios, two species of lizards will likely lose at least 80% of their suitable climatic niche, and seven species will likely see their suitable climatic niche completely disappear. Climate change will likely have a negative impact on species' suitable climatic-niche availability. High altitude and associated environmental factors may accelerate local extinctions of mountain reptiles. We highlight the importance of identifying high-risk species for better conservation efforts.