Non-stationary analysis of spatial patterns of extreme rainfall events in West Africa

Sandra G.García Galiano; Juan D.Giraldo Osorio

Non-stationary analysis of spatial patterns of extreme rainfall events in West Africa

Sandra G.García Galiano
, Juan D.Giraldo Osorio

Technical University of Cartagena

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

Heavy storm events frequently cause extensive damage, and often result in loss of life and property. The objective of this work is to build maps of Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall (AMDR) for various return periods for the Senegal River Basin. However, traditional stationary analyses are not suitable, since meaningful trends have been detected in historical hydrometeorological time series. Therefore, the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) tool is applied to fit the parameters of the probability density functions (pdfs). AMDR time series were estimated using observed daily rainfall grids and regional climate models (RCMs). The wide divergence in predicted trends from RCMs imposes the use of ensemble pdfs, which can be built using bootstrapping techniques. The plausible AMDR maps associated with various quantiles, interpolated from these ensemble pdfs, could be used by stakeholders to develop strategies of mitigation and adaptation to climate change impacts on floods events.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Hydro-Climatology
Subtitle of host publication	Variability and Change
Pages	75-81
Number of pages	7
State	Published - 2011
Externally published	Yes
Event	Hydro-climatology - Variability and Change Symposium, part of the 25th International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly, IUGG 2011 - Melbourne, VIC, Australia Duration: 28 Jun 2011 → 07 Jul 2011

Publication series

Name	IAHS-AISH Publication
Volume	344
ISSN (Print)	0144-7815

Conference

Conference	Hydro-climatology - Variability and Change Symposium, part of the 25th International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly, IUGG 2011
Country/Territory	Australia
City	Melbourne, VIC
Period	28/06/11 → 07/07/11

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

Bootstrapping
Ensemble probability density function
GAMLSS
Maximum daily rainfall
Non-stationarity
Regional climate models

Cite this

@inproceedings{7f519663559f4828afa189f66945e8a9,

title = "Non-stationary analysis of spatial patterns of extreme rainfall events in West Africa",

abstract = "Heavy storm events frequently cause extensive damage, and often result in loss of life and property. The objective of this work is to build maps of Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall (AMDR) for various return periods for the Senegal River Basin. However, traditional stationary analyses are not suitable, since meaningful trends have been detected in historical hydrometeorological time series. Therefore, the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) tool is applied to fit the parameters of the probability density functions (pdfs). AMDR time series were estimated using observed daily rainfall grids and regional climate models (RCMs). The wide divergence in predicted trends from RCMs imposes the use of ensemble pdfs, which can be built using bootstrapping techniques. The plausible AMDR maps associated with various quantiles, interpolated from these ensemble pdfs, could be used by stakeholders to develop strategies of mitigation and adaptation to climate change impacts on floods events.",

keywords = "Bootstrapping, Ensemble probability density function, GAMLSS, Maximum daily rainfall, Non-stationarity, Regional climate models",

author = "Galiano, \{Sandra G.Garc{\'i}a\} and Osorio, \{Juan D.Giraldo\}",

year = "2011",

language = "English",

isbn = "9781907161193",

series = "IAHS-AISH Publication",

pages = "75--81",

booktitle = "Hydro-Climatology",

note = "Hydro-climatology - Variability and Change Symposium, part of the 25th International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly, IUGG 2011 ; Conference date: 28-06-2011 Through 07-07-2011",

}

Galiano, SGG & Osorio, JDG 2011, Non-stationary analysis of spatial patterns of extreme rainfall events in West Africa. in Hydro-Climatology: Variability and Change. IAHS-AISH Publication, vol. 344, pp. 75-81, Hydro-climatology - Variability and Change Symposium, part of the 25th International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly, IUGG 2011, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, 28/06/11.

TY - GEN

T1 - Non-stationary analysis of spatial patterns of extreme rainfall events in West Africa

AU - Galiano, Sandra G.García

AU - Osorio, Juan D.Giraldo

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - Heavy storm events frequently cause extensive damage, and often result in loss of life and property. The objective of this work is to build maps of Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall (AMDR) for various return periods for the Senegal River Basin. However, traditional stationary analyses are not suitable, since meaningful trends have been detected in historical hydrometeorological time series. Therefore, the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) tool is applied to fit the parameters of the probability density functions (pdfs). AMDR time series were estimated using observed daily rainfall grids and regional climate models (RCMs). The wide divergence in predicted trends from RCMs imposes the use of ensemble pdfs, which can be built using bootstrapping techniques. The plausible AMDR maps associated with various quantiles, interpolated from these ensemble pdfs, could be used by stakeholders to develop strategies of mitigation and adaptation to climate change impacts on floods events.

AB - Heavy storm events frequently cause extensive damage, and often result in loss of life and property. The objective of this work is to build maps of Annual Maximum Daily Rainfall (AMDR) for various return periods for the Senegal River Basin. However, traditional stationary analyses are not suitable, since meaningful trends have been detected in historical hydrometeorological time series. Therefore, the GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) tool is applied to fit the parameters of the probability density functions (pdfs). AMDR time series were estimated using observed daily rainfall grids and regional climate models (RCMs). The wide divergence in predicted trends from RCMs imposes the use of ensemble pdfs, which can be built using bootstrapping techniques. The plausible AMDR maps associated with various quantiles, interpolated from these ensemble pdfs, could be used by stakeholders to develop strategies of mitigation and adaptation to climate change impacts on floods events.

KW - Bootstrapping

KW - Ensemble probability density function

KW - GAMLSS

KW - Maximum daily rainfall

KW - Non-stationarity

KW - Regional climate models

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/81755169849

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:81755169849

SN - 9781907161193

T3 - IAHS-AISH Publication

SP - 75

EP - 81

BT - Hydro-Climatology

T2 - Hydro-climatology - Variability and Change Symposium, part of the 25th International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics General Assembly, IUGG 2011

Y2 - 28 June 2011 through 7 July 2011

ER -

Non-stationary analysis of spatial patterns of extreme rainfall events in West Africa

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

UN SDGs

Keywords

Other files and links

Fingerprint

Análisis de la variabilidad y tendencias de eventos extremos de precipitación en el contexto del cambio climático: desarrollo de una herramienta de seguimiento dinámico de inundaciones

Cite this