Lower Limb Arthroplasties in Colombia: Projections for 2050 Based on Official Records: Projections for 2050 Based on Official Records

Population ageing is driving a growing demand for orthopedic surgical procedures. The rise in chronic conditions such as osteoarthritis significantly contributesto disability among older adults, particularly women, and primarily affects the hip andknee joints, thereby increasing the need for arthroplasties. Objective: To determine thefuture demand for lower limb arthroplasty procedures among individuals aged 60 andover in Colombia up to 2050, using official public health records and national demographicprojections. Methods: This study used an observational longitudinal retrospective design,using a Poisson regression model with official records from the Integrated Social ProtectionInformation System—which consolidates procedures reported by both public and privatehealthcare service providers—to identify lower limb arthroplasties performed between2015 and 2023. Population projections from the National Department of Statistics wereincorporated to model future demand, accounting for demographic ageing and mortalitytrends. An additional analysis was conducted by sex and the most prevalent types ofarthroplasties. Results: A total of 62,728 procedures took place from 2015 to 2023, withwomen undergoing approximately twice as many as men. The highest intervention ratesoccurred in the 65–69 and ≥80 age groups. By 2050, projections indicate the number ofprocedures will reach 39,270, with 52.7% projected among women. Conclusions: Thisstudy reports demographic trends in arthroplasties between 2015 and 2023 and offersinsights into the anticipated future burden of lower limb arthroplasties among Colombia’solder population