Estimating potential gains in life expectancy by reducing violent deaths in selected countries

Injuries account for some 5 million deaths in the world each year, and nearly a third of these (1.6 million) are recognizable intentional. We assess the immediate demographic cost of mortality due to intentional violence in over 90 countries using population and mortality data collected from international organizations and country statistical offices for the year 2004, and attempt an economic costing valuation. We employ multiple decrement life table analysis to estimate the potential gains in life expectancy (PGLEs) that could be achieved by reducing the risk of intentional injury deaths to a proposed “regular” level of 1.27 deaths per 100,000 persons. Regional PGLEs range from 0.44 years for men in the Americas to 0.02 years for women in the Western Pacific. Violence prevention programs are likely to have the highest overall impact in countries such as Jamaica, Colombia, and Brazil characterized by both relatively high life expectancies and high levels of homicides.