Discrete rainfall predictability Using the El Niño/Southern Oscillation interaction

Sandra Milena Ramirez Buelvas; Eric Alfaro; Luis  Cid; David Enfield

Discrete rainfall predictability Using the El Niño/Southern Oscillation interaction

Sandra Milena Ramirez Buelvas
, Eric Alfaro
, Luis Cid
, David Enfield

University of Costa Rica
Universidad del Bío-Bío

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

Abstract

The objective of the study was to determine the probability of occurrence of wet or dry
season events, based on the phase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon
using multinomial logit regression models. The study used monthly time series of the
Pacific equatorial sea surface temperature (SST), a sea level pressure index (SOI) and
rainfall anomalies over a 2.5x2.5 degrees grid along the west coast of Central and South
America, for latitudes starting at 25N, through 45S, since 1951 to 2011. We defined an
ENSO index (NSO) as predictor and rainfall as response. Data was categorized into
terciles to construct non symmetrical three way contingency table. As results, we
generated latitudinal profiles of the predictability (association), for the West Coast of
Central and South America, using ENSO as predictor.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Proceedings of the ASA JSM 2013. Section on Statistics and the Environment.
Pages	1-15
Number of pages	15
State	Published - 01 Dec 2013

Cite this

@inproceedings{c496bb4ff1e3440882c4be2ce6a335d1,

title = "Discrete rainfall predictability Using the El Ni{\~n}o/Southern Oscillation interaction",

abstract = "The objective of the study was to determine the probability of occurrence of wet or dry season events, based on the phase of El Ni{\~n}o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon using multinomial logit regression models. The study used monthly time series of the Pacific equatorial sea surface temperature (SST), a sea level pressure index (SOI) and rainfall anomalies over a 2.5x2.5 degrees grid along the west coast of Central and South America, for latitudes starting at 25N, through 45S, since 1951 to 2011. We defined an ENSO index (NSO) as predictor and rainfall as response. Data was categorized into terciles to construct non symmetrical three way contingency table. As results, we generated latitudinal profiles of the predictability (association), for the West Coast of Central and South America, using ENSO as predictor.",

keywords = "ENSO, rainfall, El Ni{\~n}o Southern Oscillation (ENSO)",

author = "\{Ramirez Buelvas\}, \{Sandra Milena\} and Eric Alfaro and Luis Cid and David Enfield",

year = "2013",

month = dec,

day = "1",

language = "English",

pages = "1--15",

booktitle = "Proceedings of the ASA JSM 2013. Section on Statistics and the Environment.",

}

TY - GEN

T1 - Discrete rainfall predictability Using the El Niño/Southern Oscillation interaction

AU - Ramirez Buelvas, Sandra Milena

AU - Alfaro, Eric

AU - Cid, Luis

AU - Enfield, David

PY - 2013/12/1

Y1 - 2013/12/1

N2 - The objective of the study was to determine the probability of occurrence of wet or dry season events, based on the phase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon using multinomial logit regression models. The study used monthly time series of the Pacific equatorial sea surface temperature (SST), a sea level pressure index (SOI) and rainfall anomalies over a 2.5x2.5 degrees grid along the west coast of Central and South America, for latitudes starting at 25N, through 45S, since 1951 to 2011. We defined an ENSO index (NSO) as predictor and rainfall as response. Data was categorized into terciles to construct non symmetrical three way contingency table. As results, we generated latitudinal profiles of the predictability (association), for the West Coast of Central and South America, using ENSO as predictor.

AB - The objective of the study was to determine the probability of occurrence of wet or dry season events, based on the phase of El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon using multinomial logit regression models. The study used monthly time series of the Pacific equatorial sea surface temperature (SST), a sea level pressure index (SOI) and rainfall anomalies over a 2.5x2.5 degrees grid along the west coast of Central and South America, for latitudes starting at 25N, through 45S, since 1951 to 2011. We defined an ENSO index (NSO) as predictor and rainfall as response. Data was categorized into terciles to construct non symmetrical three way contingency table. As results, we generated latitudinal profiles of the predictability (association), for the West Coast of Central and South America, using ENSO as predictor.

KW - ENSO

KW - rainfall

KW - El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

M3 - Conference contribution

SP - 1

EP - 15

BT - Proceedings of the ASA JSM 2013. Section on Statistics and the Environment.

ER -

Discrete rainfall predictability Using the El Niño/Southern Oscillation interaction

Abstract

Fingerprint

Cite this