Cyclicality, Public Policy, Assignment And Care: Simón Bolívar Hospital Colombia

The following article studies the use of the number of beds for different services at the Simon Bolivar Hospital in Bogota, Colombia, using records of admissions, average stays and patient discharges for different services. The quality of health care is simulated from available information and using queue theory, identifying patient waiting time. Method; First, information on the hospital's 20-month operation for the years 2014 and 2015 is obtained, organized and refined using public information. Then the spectral coherence between the behavior of patients and beds used in the Hospital is estimated identifying the consistency between the behavior of variables to use it as input in M/M/S queue models, where S is the number of beds available in parallel for each clinical specialty of the service provided; this, using software assuming infinite population. These results are used to analyze the sensitivity of the servers to change and thus estimate the optimal number of servers to reduce the system's queue. Results; Different modeled services lead to different types of waiting lines; the variables present coherent behavior; it is observed that the system queue can be reduced by changing the number of servers installed in each service, by improving efficiency in sensitivity analysis.