Climate change might drive species into reserves: A case study of the American bullfrog in the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot

Habitat loss is the most important cause of species extinction worldwide that can act as a catalyst of biological invasions. To prevent species extinction, in-situ conservation strategies still figure as the cornerstone of biodiversity conservation. However, with expected broad-scale environmental changes likely to produce species range shifts and foster alien species invasions, will existing networks of protected areas be able to guarantee the long-term persistence of the species they should protect? Here we evaluate the potential impact of climate change in driving the invasive American bullfrog Lithobates catesbeianus into reserves currently established in the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot. We produced potential geographic distribution maps both for current time and for 2050 using eight species distribution modeling methods and three different climate models to evaluate model uncertainty. We then overlaid a consensus prediction of species distribution to the existing network of protected areas. We show that, under climate change, L. catesbeianus is likely to colonize reserves more efficiently than today, putting in jeopardy native amphibian species thought to be protected in such places. We also suggest some policy recommendations to mitigate such potential impact on the Atlantic Forest native amphibian fauna.