Assessing drought hazard under non-stationary conditions on southeast of Spain

Sandra G.García Galiano; Juan D.Giraldo Osorio; Mario A.Urrea Mallebrera; Adolfo Mérida Abril; Claudia N.Tetay Botía

Assessing drought hazard under non-stationary conditions on southeast of Spain

Sandra G.García Galiano
, Juan D.Giraldo Osorio
, Mario A.Urrea Mallebrera
, Adolfo Mérida Abril
, Claudia N.Tetay Botía

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceeding › Conference contribution › peer-review

1 Scopus citations

Abstract

The vulnerability of semi-arid basins such as the Segura River basin (southeast Spain), to rainfall variability, implies uncertainties in agricultural activities. Increasing the knowledge about plausible trends of drought events will improve the adaptation and mitigation measures. The non-stationary character of hydrometeorological series, based on climate and anthropogenic changes, is the main criticism of traditional frequency analysis. An innovative methodology for non-stationary analysis of droughts events, applying GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) is presented. The analyses were based on observed data and. selected regional climate models (RCMs). The series of maximum length of dry spells (MDSL) from observed data show an intensification of drought events in headwater catchments from the 1980s onwards. From various RCMs, plausible trends of MDSL are identified. By adjusting pdf to series of observed MDSL, applying GAMLSS and bootstrapping techniques, the assessment of regional trends associated to return period, from hazard maps is possible.

Original language	English
Title of host publication	Risk in Water Resources Management
Pages	85-91
Number of pages	7
State	Published - 2011
Externally published	Yes
Event	Symposium H03 on Risk in Water Resources Management, Held During the 25th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, IUGG 2011 - Melbourne, VIC, Australia Duration: 28 Jun 2011 → 07 Jul 2011

Publication series

Name	IAHS-AISH Publication
Volume	347
ISSN (Print)	0144-7815

Conference

Conference	Symposium H03 on Risk in Water Resources Management, Held During the 25th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, IUGG 2011
Country/Territory	Australia
City	Melbourne, VIC
Period	28/06/11 → 07/07/11

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 13 Climate Action

Keywords

Drought
GAMLSS
Non-stationary probabilistic models
Segura River Basin
Spain

Cite this

@inproceedings{643df93097fc474e9e54c2ecaf4d5602,

title = "Assessing drought hazard under non-stationary conditions on southeast of Spain",

abstract = "The vulnerability of semi-arid basins such as the Segura River basin (southeast Spain), to rainfall variability, implies uncertainties in agricultural activities. Increasing the knowledge about plausible trends of drought events will improve the adaptation and mitigation measures. The non-stationary character of hydrometeorological series, based on climate and anthropogenic changes, is the main criticism of traditional frequency analysis. An innovative methodology for non-stationary analysis of droughts events, applying GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) is presented. The analyses were based on observed data and. selected regional climate models (RCMs). The series of maximum length of dry spells (MDSL) from observed data show an intensification of drought events in headwater catchments from the 1980s onwards. From various RCMs, plausible trends of MDSL are identified. By adjusting pdf to series of observed MDSL, applying GAMLSS and bootstrapping techniques, the assessment of regional trends associated to return period, from hazard maps is possible.",

keywords = "Drought, GAMLSS, Non-stationary probabilistic models, Segura River Basin, Spain",

author = "Galiano, \{Sandra G.Garc{\'i}a\} and Osorio, \{Juan D.Giraldo\} and Mallebrera, \{Mario A.Urrea\} and Abril, \{Adolfo M{\'e}rida\} and Bot{\'i}a, \{Claudia N.Tetay\}",

year = "2011",

language = "English",

isbn = "9781907161223",

series = "IAHS-AISH Publication",

pages = "85--91",

booktitle = "Risk in Water Resources Management",

note = "Symposium H03 on Risk in Water Resources Management, Held During the 25th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, IUGG 2011 ; Conference date: 28-06-2011 Through 07-07-2011",

}

Galiano, SGG, Osorio, JDG, Mallebrera, MAU, Abril, AM & Botía, CNT 2011, Assessing drought hazard under non-stationary conditions on southeast of Spain. in Risk in Water Resources Management. IAHS-AISH Publication, vol. 347, pp. 85-91, Symposium H03 on Risk in Water Resources Management, Held During the 25th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, IUGG 2011, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, 28/06/11.

TY - GEN

T1 - Assessing drought hazard under non-stationary conditions on southeast of Spain

AU - Galiano, Sandra G.García

AU - Osorio, Juan D.Giraldo

AU - Mallebrera, Mario A.Urrea

AU - Abril, Adolfo Mérida

AU - Botía, Claudia N.Tetay

PY - 2011

Y1 - 2011

N2 - The vulnerability of semi-arid basins such as the Segura River basin (southeast Spain), to rainfall variability, implies uncertainties in agricultural activities. Increasing the knowledge about plausible trends of drought events will improve the adaptation and mitigation measures. The non-stationary character of hydrometeorological series, based on climate and anthropogenic changes, is the main criticism of traditional frequency analysis. An innovative methodology for non-stationary analysis of droughts events, applying GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) is presented. The analyses were based on observed data and. selected regional climate models (RCMs). The series of maximum length of dry spells (MDSL) from observed data show an intensification of drought events in headwater catchments from the 1980s onwards. From various RCMs, plausible trends of MDSL are identified. By adjusting pdf to series of observed MDSL, applying GAMLSS and bootstrapping techniques, the assessment of regional trends associated to return period, from hazard maps is possible.

AB - The vulnerability of semi-arid basins such as the Segura River basin (southeast Spain), to rainfall variability, implies uncertainties in agricultural activities. Increasing the knowledge about plausible trends of drought events will improve the adaptation and mitigation measures. The non-stationary character of hydrometeorological series, based on climate and anthropogenic changes, is the main criticism of traditional frequency analysis. An innovative methodology for non-stationary analysis of droughts events, applying GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape) is presented. The analyses were based on observed data and. selected regional climate models (RCMs). The series of maximum length of dry spells (MDSL) from observed data show an intensification of drought events in headwater catchments from the 1980s onwards. From various RCMs, plausible trends of MDSL are identified. By adjusting pdf to series of observed MDSL, applying GAMLSS and bootstrapping techniques, the assessment of regional trends associated to return period, from hazard maps is possible.

KW - Drought

KW - GAMLSS

KW - Non-stationary probabilistic models

KW - Segura River Basin

KW - Spain

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/84860579292

M3 - Conference contribution

AN - SCOPUS:84860579292

SN - 9781907161223

T3 - IAHS-AISH Publication

SP - 85

EP - 91

BT - Risk in Water Resources Management

T2 - Symposium H03 on Risk in Water Resources Management, Held During the 25th General Assembly of the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics, IUGG 2011

Y2 - 28 June 2011 through 7 July 2011

ER -

Assessing drought hazard under non-stationary conditions on southeast of Spain

Abstract

Publication series

Conference

UN SDGs

Keywords

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