Analisis of ENSO-driven variability, and long term trends, of Extreme Precipitation Index (EPI) in Colombia, using the satellite rainfall estimates CHIRPS.

Climate change is usually thought as higher temperatures in the future, because of the consensus about global warming. However, global warming will cause unexpected changes in precipitation patterns. Climate models have not yet reached a consensus about the future trend of precipitation average in different zones of the world. It is even more uncertain the future trend that will have the extreme values (including both extreme droughts and heavy events), since their observation is hard because they are unusual events. Colombia is permanently exposed to climatic extremes related to precipitation: during El Niño years the rain is drastically reduced (and, consequently, the rivers flow and the water resource availability); nevertheless, during La Niña years, the rain is excessive, which is a suitable condition that triggers floods and landslides, mainly in the mountainous area of the country. Given that the precipitation extremes are affected by both the long-term trends, and the inter-annual variability, represented by El Niño/La Niña years cycle, conduct this study is relevant.