Agent-based models for integrated water resource management: quantifying land use changes by integrating economic and social incentives. Case study: Vista Hermosa (Meta)

Water management is essential in the face of growing global demand for domestic consumption, food production, and energy generation. This study applies the Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) approach to the Güéjar River basin in Colombia, a complex system with productive activities such as agriculture, livestock farming, and oil extraction. An agent-based model developed in NetLogo was used to analyze land use changes under a climate scenario characterized by reduced precipitation and increased temperature. The analysis integrated hydrological data from the GR2M model, a high-resolution land cover map, and a causal diagram representing decisionmaking processes related to water use and land occupation. The study area covered 2,372 km². Results show that shrublands and secondary forests are the most vulnerable, with losses of approximately 25% and 15%, respectively. In contrast, grazing areas increased by 35%, and small-scale producers declined by 40%, displaced by larger actors. These findings underscore escalating socio-environmental risks.