Front-of-package warning labels and the dynamics of habit change in ultra-processed food consumption: a computational model

Mounting evidence (Srour et al., 2020; Zhang & Giovannucci, 2023) reveals the health risks associated with consuming ultra-processed foods. These foods have been linked to type 2 diabetes, heart disease, and increased mortality. Public health authorities worldwide have employed various strategies to raise awareness among consumers. One such strategy is the use of front-of-package labels. Front-of-package warning labels (FoPWL), particularly in Latin America, aim to discourage excessive consumption of sugary drinks and ultra-processed foods – both categories being energy-dense and nutrient-poor (Taillie et al., 2020). FoPWL are visually attended to by consumers, easy to understand and quickly interpret, help identify products high in nutrients of concern, and discourage the purchase of these products. Colombia has not been an exception. The country recently followed suit, first implementing a circular warning label and then transitioning to the octagonal one. An online experiment revealed that the octagonal label was the most effective in discouraging purchases and was also the most liked and trusted design. Data collected in Colombia in 2016 showed that meats, sweets, and snacks had the highest proportion of products subject to warning labels, while cereals, miscellaneous foods, and fish/seafood had the lowest proportions (Mora-Plazas et al., 2019). Our proposal focuses on inspecting the dynamics of behavioral change when consumers are exposed to front-of-package warning labels. We aim to identify the potential impact of public policies aimed at changes in food consumption decisions. To that end, we build a computational model that explores the possible impact of warning labels of the contents of foods with excess added sugars, sodium, and saturated fats, on the food consumption decisions of people in a specific population in Colombia.